20 December 2013

Fantasy Premier League Prediction: Round 17

Analysis

It was a tough round with a lot of expectations. We were a little bit disappointed with our rate of predictions for round 15 and had to take some decisions. We worked on our algorithm and fix some of the found bugs, so now we think it is a bit better. So we entered in 16th round with the expectations of a better results. Now we are glad to announce that our results are positive. We managed to predict 6 out of 10 signs. We predicted the expected wins of Chelsea and Everton, but also the derby wins of Liverpool and Man City, the away win of Man United and the draw between Hull and Stoke. So we are finishing round 16 with addition of 2.5% and now we are on 52.5%.

The most impressive and overjoyed thing is that we managed to give five out of seven positive advices. Everyone would suggest that transfer of Luis Suarez in their team is completely normal. The adivces for Hazard, Lukaku and Rooney are also a easy decision. We are most satisfied with the advice "Get defender or goalkeeper from West Ham United", cause West Ham managed to achieve a clean sheet. So finally we have the amazing 71.4% of positive advices for round 16 and the overall 45.5% positive advices.

So as conclusion, despite made on just one round, we could say that our changes lead to a satisfactory results. We are looking forward to the next round and we hope for even better results.

Predictions

Home TeamAway TeamRatingAdvices
FulhamManchester City44 for Manchester CityGet defender or goalkeeper from Manchester City and get Alvaro Negredo from Manchester City
LiverpoolCardiff City33 for LiverpoolGet Luis Suárez from Liverpool
Crystal PalaceNewcastle United17 for Newcastle UnitedNo advice
Swansea CityEverton12 for EvertonGet defender or goalkeeper from Everton
ArsenalChelsea10 for ArsenalGet defender or goalkeeper from Arsenal
Manchester UnitedWest Ham United9 for Manchester UnitedGet Wayne Rooney from Manchester United
SunderlandNorwich City8 for Norwich CityNo advice
SouthamptonTottenham Hotspur7 for SouthamptonGet defender or goalkeeper from Southampton
Stoke CityAston VillaDrawGet defender or goalkeeper from Stoke City
West Bromwich AlbionHull City3 for West Bromwich AlbionGet defender or goalkeeper from West Bromwich Albion

13 December 2013

Fantasy Premier League Prediction: Round 16

Analysis

Our first real failure was at round 15. It is true that there were some surprising results, but we are far from happy with the success rate of our predictions this round. Of course we were ready for such a situation. It is completely normal to have rounds with a less than the target percentage. We have also detected a little problem in our algorithm. We have fixed it now and we are still working on the tunning of the whole process.

We have managed to predict just two of the games played in round 15. We predicted the wins of Liverpool and Tottenham. This lead us to the unsatisfactory 20% of success rate for the round. Adding this to the whole percentage give us 50% of successful predictions, which is not that bad.

As to the advices we are on the same bar. Just two correct advices from 8 given. It is a little bit disappointing because the only positive advices were to buy Luis Suarez and Sergio Aguero, which were the leaders in the scoreboard and most of the players bought them already. So we are finishing the 15th round with 25% of positive advices, which lead us to 38% of successful advices at all.



Predictions


Home TeamAway TeamRatingAdvices
ChelseaCrystal Palace30 for ChelseaGet defender or goalkeeper from Chelsea and get Eden Hazard from Chelsea
EvertonFulham27 for EvertonGet defender or goalkeeper from Everton and get Romelu Lukaku from Everton
Tottenham HotspurLiverpool17 for LiverpoolGet Luis Suárez from Liverpool
Norwich CitySwansea City15 for Swansea CityNo advice
West Ham UnitedSunderland15 for West Ham UnitedGet defender or goalkeeper from West Ham United
Cardiff CityWest Bromwich Albion10 for West Bromwich AlbionNo advice
Newcastle UnitedSouthampton7 for SouthamptonNo advice
Aston VillaManchester United6 for Manchester UnitedGet Wayne Rooney from Manchester United
Manchester CityArsenal6 for Manchester CityNo advice
Hull CityStoke CityDrawNo advice

5 December 2013

Fantasy Premier League Prediction: Round 15

Analysis

As we expected the second round of predictions was with a little less success then the previous. We have managed to predict only the winner of the halv of the games: Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal and Tottenham. That means that we achieved an 50% success rate for the predictions of round 14. It is in our elevation, so we are still on course and we could conclude that up to now our algorithm is good. Our success rate for the winner of the games is: 65%

If we have to analyze the given advices, we will have to start with one of them which seems a little controversial. We give the advice to bought a defender or goalkeeper of Man City, and two of their defenders managed to achieve good points because of assists: Zabaleta and Kolarov, so we will count this one as positive. The other three successful advices are to get the star player of the round: Luis Suarez, to get Sergio Aguero and to get Aaron Ramsey. So we are on the same track with the advices and we continue with the amazing 44.44%.

Predictions
Home TeamAway TeamRatingAdvices
LiverpoolWest Ham United25 for LiverpoolGet Luis Suarez from Liverpool
SunderlandTottenham Hotspur21 for Tottenham HotspurGet defender or goalkeeper from Tottenham Hotspur
West Bromwich AlbionNorwich City18 for West Bromwich AlbionNo advice
Stoke CityChelsea16 for ChelseaGet Eden Hazard from Chelsea
SouthamptonManchester City16 for Manchester CityGet defender or goalkeeper from Manchester City and get Sergio Aguero from Manchester City
Swansea CityHull City15 for Swansea CityNo advice
ArsenalEverton12 for ArsenalGet defender or goalkeeper from Arsenal and get Aaron Ramsey from Arsenal
FulhamAston Villa12 for Aston VillaNo advice
Crystal PalaceCardiff City9 for Cardiff CityNo advice
Manchester UnitedNewcastle United6 for Manchester UnitedGet Wayne Rooney from Manchester United

2 December 2013

Fantasy Premier League Prediction: Round 14

Analysis

As we promised we will make an analysis of our predictions of the latest round in the next round prediction article. We are more than sure that our formula will not provide an 100% success, but we will try to modify it in the process in order to achieve over 50%.

We can proudly announce that the start of the rubric, despite being in the fatal round 13, was a big success. Our rating predictions were more than accurate. We did not achieve a success only for the biggest surprise of the round Hull City : Liverpool and the derby game of the round Tottenham Hotspurs : Manchester United. We have managed to predict the winner of the other eight games which give us a starting percentage of 80%.

The predictions for player transfers were also a success. We had the expectations for 25-30% of good picks, but we started with the impressive 44.44%.

Predictions

Home TeamAway TeamRatingAdvices
SunderlandChelsea32 for ChelseaGet Oscar from Chelsea
LiverpoolNorwich City28 for LiverpoolGet Luis Suarez from Liverpool
West Bromwich AlbionManchester City25 for Manchester CityGet defender or goalkeeper from Manchester City and get Sergio Agüero from Manchester City
ArsenalHull City24 for ArsenalGet Aaron Ramsey from Arsenal
Crystal PalaceWest Ham United13 for West Ham UnitedGet defender or goalkeeper from West Ham United
SouthamptonAston Villa13 for SouthamptonGet defender or goalkeeper from Southampton
FulhamTottenham Hotspur11 for Tottenham HotspurGet defender or goalkeeper from Tottenham Hotspur
Stoke CityCardiff City5 for Stoke CityNo advice
Swansea CityNewcastle United1 for Newcastle UnitedGet Loïc Remy from Newcastle United
Manchester UnitedEvertonDrawNo advice

28 November 2013

Fantasy Premier League Prediction: Round 13

Home TeamAway TeamRatingAdvices
Cardiff CityArsenal25 for ArsenalGet Olivier Giroud from Arsenal
Manchester CitySwansea City24 for Manchester CityGet defender or goalkeeper from Manchester City and get Sergio Agüero from Manchester City
Hull CityLiverpool20 for LiverpoolGet Daniel Sturridge from Liverpool
Aston VillaSunderland18 for Aston VillaNo advice
EvertonStoke City9 for EvertonGet defender or goalkeeper from Everton
Tottenham HotspurManchester United7 for Manchester UnitedGet Robin Van Persie from Manchester United
West Ham UnitedFulham6 for West Ham UnitedGet defender or goalkeeper from West Ham United
Norwich CityCrystal Palace4 for Norwich CityNo advice
Newcastle UnitedWest Bromwich Albion2 for Newcastle UnitedGet Loïc Remy from Newcastle United
ChelseaSouthampton1 for ChelseaGet Oscar from Chelsea